Simulating socio-economic impacts of climate change on rice farming systems: trialing a novel integrated methodology for Kadawaramulla, Kurunegala

Abstract

Introduction:

More than 33% of Sri Lanka’s population is directly or indirectly engaged in the rice sector (CBSL, 2011). Rice is produced in the Maha season (October to March) and the Yala season (April to September). Rice farms are generally small and crops are grown in complex, diverse and risk- prone environments. Climate change could have an impact on physicaland biological systems (Rosenzweig et al., 2008) and rice productivity in South Asia is predicted to be reduced by 14% by 2050 (IFPRI. 2009).

The objective of this study is to assess a methodological approach to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change on rice dominated farming systems going beyond estimating net aggregate benefits and losses. Given the shortcomings of contemporary models, an integrated multi-model approach is called for. Here, we present a case of using one climate model, one crop model and one socio-economic model (all of which are state of the art) – to demonstrate the feasibility of using such models in an integrated framework under Sri Lankan conditions more substantially. We restrict ourselves to quantifying the potential number of farms that could gain or lose under a specific future climate change scenario without adaptation.