Assessing the impact of digital connectivity and ICT trade on black carbon emissions in Sri Lanka from 2000 to 2022

Abstract

Introduction: This study investigates the impact of digital connectivity and information and communication technology (ICT) trade on black carbon emissions (BCE) in Sri Lanka over the period 2000–2022. Addressing a notable research gap that extends beyond the commonly studied CO₂ emissions, the research specifically examines how mobile penetration, broadband penetration, ICT goods exports, and ICT goods imports influence BCE. Using secondary time-series data obtained from the World Bank and Our World in Data, the study employs descriptive statistical analysis and a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model estimated using STATA.

The empirical results reveal that broadband penetration and ICT goods exports have a statistically significant and negative effect on black carbon emissions, suggesting that enhanced digital infrastructure and export-oriented ICT activities contribute to emission reductions, potentially through mechanisms such as telecommuting, digital service delivery, and less pollution-intensive production processes. Although mobile penetration and ICT goods imports also exhibit negative relationships with BCE, these effects are not statistically significant. The findings further indicate that Sri Lanka’s recent economic instability, financial constraints, and political challenges may have moderated the environmental impacts of ICT adoption and trade.

The study concludes that strengthening broadband infrastructure, promoting the export of energy-efficient ICT goods, and facilitating cleaner ICT imports can play a meaningful role in mitigating black carbon emissions and associated health risks in Sri Lanka. Policy measures focused on digital literacy, sustainable ICT trade, and support for remote work are recommended to align environmental protection with economic recovery and long-term sustainable development goals.