A comparative analysis of rice industry productivity and export strategies: evidence from Sri Lanka and Thailand from 2003 - 2023

Abstract

This study presents a comparative quantitative analysis of rice industry productivity and export strategies in Sri Lanka and Thailand over the period 2003–2023. The primary objective is to evaluate differences in productivity performance and international competitiveness and to derive policy-relevant lessons for enhancing Sri Lanka’s rice export potential. Using secondary data from FAO, World Bank, IRRI, national statistical agencies, UN COMTRADE, and WTO sources, the study measures productivity through yield per hectare, total production, and labour productivity, while export performance is assessed using export volume, value, unit price, destination markets, and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, compound annual growth rates, and correlation analysis, with monetary values adjusted for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.

The results reveal a clear divergence between the two countries. Although Sri Lanka records higher average yields per hectare, Thailand outperforms Sri Lanka in total production, labour productivity, and export performance. Thailand maintains a strong and persistent comparative advantage in global rice trade, reflected by high RCA values and strong positive correlations between productivity indicators and export outcomes. In contrast, Sri Lanka’s rice exports remain negligible, with weak competitiveness and a limited link between domestic productivity and international trade performance. These disparities are attributed to differences in mechanisation, post-harvest infrastructure, institutional quality, and export-oriented policy frameworks.

The study concludes that yield improvements alone are insufficient to ensure export competitiveness. Thailand’s experience highlights the importance of aligning productivity growth with market-oriented strategies, institutional reforms, and global value chain integration. For Sri Lanka, the findings underscore the need for coherent agricultural and trade policies that balance food security with export development, strengthen quality control and logistics, and promote value addition to achieve sustainable competitiveness in the rice sector.