Global grain market and human security in Asia

Abstract

In 2011, the Arab Spring erupted, and the collapse of dictatorial governments and civil wars successively broke out in certain North African and West Asian countries. Terrorist groups were also formed, most notably the ISIL/ISIS, which are responsible for the murder of many innocent civilians today. In Syria and Iraq, the ISIL/ISIS declared the restoration of slavery and implemented human trafficking of women and children of religious minorities. This has become a serious humanitarian crisis. Why has this severe crisis of human security continued since 2011? This paper argues that there could be three possible economic factors which have formed the background for this situation, namely, global grain prices, the grain self-sufficiency rate, and per capita Gross National Income (GNI). From 2006 to 2010, global grain prices soared rapidly. During the period from 2001- 2005, the global wheat price remained at US$161 per ton; however, by 2011, it had climbed to US$347. The grain self-sufficiency rate of the countries that fell into civil wars had been low. For instance, in 2010, it was 7% in Libya, 23% in Yemen, 51% in Iraq and 53% in Syria. With the exception of Libya, per capita GNI was low in Arab Spring nations. In 2010, it stood at US$11,416 in Libya, US$2,819 in Syria, US$1,375 in Yemen, and US$835 in Iraq. Generally, in the countries with low grain self-sufficiency rate and per capita GNI, the global grain price has a great impact on the domestic grain price. For example, in Yemen, the domestic wheat price was US$296 per ton during 2001-2005. But by 2011, it had risen to US$653. The rise of domestic grain prices had harmful effects on the lives of low-income people. Hence, some young people opted to join terrorist groups or participate in civil wars to earn money. Especially, the ISIL/ISIS recruited combatants by paying US$800 per month. Thus, poor young men joined this terrorist group in droves. How can we maintain human security and peace? The foundation for peace lies with the stability of domestic grain prices. Grain prices can be kept stable by improving grain self-sufficiency rates and grain reserve quantities. Therefore, an appropriate policy for food and agriculture is essential.