(University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, 2018-11-09) Imbulana Arachchi, I. A. Janaki
Introduction
Inflation is one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a country. It is the continuous rise in the general price level of commodities. Maintaining a low rate of inflation is one of the major macroeconomic objectives. There are two types of inflation in the economy. Those are Demand-Pull Inflation and Cost-Push Inflation. Demand-pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand for goods and services rises more rapidly than aggregate supply. One potential shock to aggregate demand might come from a central bank that rapidly increases the supply of money.
Public debt is one of the major economic issues threatening the countries which are facing fiscal deficits. Public debt includes domestic and external debt. Domestic debt is a fundamental tool used by governments to finance internal and external deficits. Domestic debt is derived from different sources such as central bank, commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions. Among these three sources, borrowing from the Central Bank and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) carry a serious effect of inflation due to increase in money supply. If the NBFIs invest by purchasing government securities and face a shortage of liquidity, they have no option but to turn to the central bank. Also there would be no inflationary effect in the case where government borrows directly from commercial banks. When the debt is utilized efficiently it enhances productive capacity and economic growth through development related projects. Contrastingly when the debt is not effectively utilized and managed, it creates problems for the economy. Here we can sum up it that there is a direct relationship between domestic debt and inflation.
There is a significant literature which has identified the relationship between domestic debt and inflation. These include the direction from public debt to inflation, where public debt has a significantly positive effect on inflation while in the opposite direction inflation has a significantly negative effect on public debt (Bon, 2015). According to previous studies, Ahmad et al. (2012) have found that the volume of domestic debt and domestic debt servicing have significantly positive effects on price level. Harmon (2012) has found a weak positive relationship between the public debt and inflation while links between public debt – GDP growth as well as public debt – interest rates are negative. Also Lopes et al. (2014) have found public debt having a positive impact on inflation. Martin (2015) has also found a positive relationship between public debt and inflation. However, according to the literature review these findings are mixed up. It means that an exact relationship between public debt and inflation has not been identified. This motivated me to do the quantitative analysis between these two variables.
(University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, 2018-11-09) Thilanka, H. R. A. C.; Sri Ranjith, J. G.
Introduction:
Tax revenue is an instrumental objective of fiscal policy. Depending on the nature of the tax, it is differently felt as a tax burden by the tax payer. With this regard, many of the existing academic discourses have focused on tax composition because it causes particular effects. Tax composition affects net inequality in two ways: first, taxes have a different degree of progressiveness, and therefore the mixture of taxes is responsible for part of inequality. Second, the tax composition affects economic incentives (e.g. labor market incentives, savings and investment), and thus indirectly affects net inequality (Drucker et. al, 2017). In the Sri Lankan context tax revenue which largely consists of indirect taxes, is the major source of financing the fiscal deficit and the means of meeting other public expenditure needs. According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, income taxes amounted to 16 per cent of the total tax income of the government, and indirect taxes amounted to 71 per cent in 2016 (CBSL, 2016). In fact, the poorest 20 per cent pay as much as 13 per cent and the poorest 10 per cent pays as much as 23 per cent of their income in the form of indirect taxes while the richest 10 per cent pay less than 1 per cent as indirect taxes (Ranasinghe, 2018). This evidence tells us that the tax system of Sri Lanka does not act as a helpful instrument in mitigating the income inequality.
The impact of tax composition on income inequality has gained interest among existing academic discourses in recent years. Among those, Drucker et al. (2017) revealed that income taxes on individuals and non-recurrent property taxes are negatively correlated with inequality and economic growth; corporate tax impedes economic growth and has no clear impact on inequality; taxes on consumption increase both inequality and growth in developed countries. Similarly, Troiano (2017) shows that income inequality is raised after all the tax policy reforms; especially, introducing new income taxes on existing income tax has caused an increase in the inequality index. Meanwhile, "with a few exceptions the impact of tax allowances and tax credits on inequality is small and tax concessions appear ill-suited to target resources towards households in the bottom part of the income distribution in European countries" (Avram, 2014). Further, "statutory corporate income tax rates are strongly negatively associated with income inequality by controlling for various other determinants of income distribution while personal income tax rates have no impact on income inequality" (Immanuel et.al 2012). However, "progressivity of national income tax reduces inequality in observed income, but has a significantly smaller impact on actual inequality in selected developed and developing countries" (Duncan and Peter, 2017). Thus, empirical evidence suggests how tax composition affects income inequality under different scenarios. Regarding the Sri Lankan context there is a dearth of research in quantitative studies on tax composition and income inequality but, investigating the relationship is necessary due to income equality in Sri Lanka not being satisfactory compared to other countries in the region. Thus, income inequality should be minimized by means of better policies especially through simplifying the tax composition and broadening the tax basis.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Godagampala, G. D. N. M.
Introduction
The Impact of Human Capital on economic growth has always been a matter of discussion in the field of Economics. According to OECD "Human Capital is defined as the knowledge, skills, competencies and other attributes embodied in individuals acquired during their life and used to produce goods, services or ideas in market circumstances". The aggregate Human Capital of an Economy determined by national health and education standards. Over a long time of economic growth leading to improvements in human capital, better educated, healthy, innovative and creative workforce can help increase labor productivity in economic growth. There can be no significant economic growth in any country without adequate Human capital developed. In the Sri Lankan context there is a controversial discussion on the role of human capital in the economic growth process. Sri Lanka has achieved a higher level of education and health indicators relative to the other south Asian countries (HDI Reports 2014 – 2015). But there is a problematic situation regarding contribution of education and health sectors in economic growth of a Sri Lanka relative to the investments on both sectors. So far results of researches which was conducted on impact of human capital in economic growth is directly depend on variables and indicators they used in their research. Therefore it is necessary to examine the impact of Human Capital on economic growth of Sri Lanka consisting broader variables than before. This study examines the impact of human capital on economic growth in Sri Lanka after incorporating both health and education.
Oyedele (2014) has found a relationship between human capital and economic growth using Sargen test and GMM method in Nigeria. This research mainly focused on analysing the effect of human capital on economic growth. It concluded that policy makers should pay attention to both health and education sectors simultaneously. Further they emphasized that the government should increase their financing of both sectors. Conversly, Acroglu and Ada (2014) argued that government expenditure on human capital had no effect on economic growth. Also the results showed increasing quality of education and health sectors improving GDP by directly causing an acceleration of economic growth. Many works of research have been carried out in Sri Lanka on the impact of human capital on economic growth. However there is a limited literature on understanding the human capital contribution on economic growth considering both health and education simultaneously. According to that background this study is conducted to fill this research gap.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Epuran, G.; Tescașiu, B.
Introduction
Globalization has a great impact on our lives. Historically, globalization has been known specific regional variations. In Europe, the new concept refers to the so called "Europenization". Education contributes to the development of society, but it is also supported by the allocation of resources to reach as good parameters as possible, with individual and societal effects. It represents a preoccupation not only for the international global organizations (United Nations), but, also for the European institutions (The European Commission, The European Council, The European Parliament) and the national ones (government and parliament), involved in the educational process.
Education in the European Union is drawn under the principle of convergence, but significant differences are still noticed. Governance means not only national policies, but, also the European perspective (the European policy), with a strong connection between these two levels, to foster structural and economic homogeneity across the EU‘s countries, to assure a viable market integration. In these circumstances, it is a challenge to study how these two levels are linked, in order to assure a viable integration of the educational policy, and to get an economy based on knowledge
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Jayarathna, D. G. N. D.; Jayawardene, C. J.
The government of Sri Lanka established economic centres in provinces according to the budget proposals in the year 1998. The Dambulla Economic Centre was the first and was established on the 01ˢᵗ of April 1999. Thereafter, a number of economic centres were established throughout the island. But Dambulla Main Hub remained the central warehouse of vegetables in the island. This paper deals with a vehicle scheduling problem in transportation and investigates a solution to overcome the problem using linear programming (LP).
Marketing Department Logistics (MDL) Ltd needs to distribute vegetables and fruits to different provinces. Its main hub is situated near the Dambulla vegetable and fruit market, and minor hubs are situated in different provinces in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this research is building a cost minimization model to create a suitable method for delivering of vegetables and fruits from the Dambulla major hub through its minor hubs to the outlets in the provinces. Hence, to optimize the cost of outbound distribution, a mathematical model has been developed by using Integer Linear Programming using reliable sources to collect data. Software assistance was obtained using the Lingo 06 optimizer, Java, Ms Access and Ms Excel tools to solve this mathematical model. This study is based on the Dambulla economic centre. This is an initial step to bring a correct protocol to arrange a transport model to distribute the vegetables and fruits from this centre in a cost-effective way. According this study all districts in Sri Lanka could be divided into four clusters.
At the beginning of this research we assumed that each district contains two warehouses and three vendors. This model is flexible enough to re-schedule for any given request. It helps to create a larger model for solving any type of transportation planning problem.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Paranamana, G. P.
Introduction
The recent period witnesses a steady inflow of remittances to developing countries. Their flows to developing countries contribute the second largest source of external finance after foreign direct investment (FDI) (Ahamada and Coulibaly, 2013) and are about three times larger than official development assistance (Wolrd Bank, 2015). Officially recorded remittances to developing countries were ＄435 billion in 2014, an increase of 5 percent over 2013. Total remittance flows to developing countries have increased more than six–fold during the period 1995 to 2015 amounting to ＄454 billion in 2015 (World Bank, 2015).
Remittances have a potential positive impact as a development tool for the recipient countries. The development effects of remittances can be decomposed into its impact on savings, investments, growth, consumption, and poverty and income distribution. The impact on growth of remittances in the receiving economies is likely to act through savings and investment as well as short-run effects on aggregate demand and output through consumption. Workers‘ remittances are a component of foreign savings and they complement national savings by increasing the total pool of resources available for investments (Solimano, 2003).
According to the literature, some researchers have found that when people migrate - especially females – that has a negative impact on society (Lipton, 2002). On the other hand, others perceive workers‘ remittances as having a significant positive impact on the economic situation (Ratha, 2003). Although the evidence on the effect of remittances on long-term growth remains inconclusive, in economies where the financial system is underdeveloped, remittances appear to alleviate credit constraints and may stimulate economic growth, via financing education and health and increasing investments. Some analysts and scholars argue that remittance benefits are only felt at the individual receiver level, but some case studies suggest that the benefits of remittances to individuals have spill-over effects that can translate into a positive impact on the local economy (Carrasco and Ro, 2007). However there is no clear direction between remittances and GDP per capita in Sri Lanka.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Gunathilaka, G.Y. N.
Introduction
Infant mortality is an important indicator which represents the probability of death of an infant before his or her first birthday. It symbolizes a country‘s socio economic development towards the standard of human well-being in a broader area. According to the Central Bank annual report 2017, the infant mortality rate was recorded as 8.5 per thousand live births. There was a considerable decline in infant mortality in the post-liberalized era as compared to the pre-liberalized period. According to the UNICEF publication "Every Child Alive - The urgent need to end new born deaths" stated that Sri Lanka is the first among 52 low-income countries in the world with regard to infant mortality rates and also the World Bank named Sri Lanka as a role model for other countries with regard to upgrading the health sector. On the other hand, the mortality rates can be considered as indices which provide a baseline for the country‘s initiatives towards sustainable development. There are relatively less studies which have examined the factors affecting the infant mortality in the Sri Lankan context. "Demographic transition theory mentioned that the infant mortality tends to decline due to upgrading in living standard and also in the medical technology" (Lee, 2003). The study is initiated to take necessary steps for further improvements in maternity and child health in Sri Lanka.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Thilanka, H. R. A. C.
Introduction
In general, government plays a vital role in the development process and contributes to ensure the social welfare of a country. In order to achieve a country‘s macroeconomic goals, the government intervenes in the economy in particular through fiscal policy. Government spending is a key component of fiscal policy which can be used to stabilize the economy over the course of the business cycle. Impacts of government spending on aggregate economic activity have been subject to vast discussion under different schools of thought. According to Keynes‘s Absolute Income Hypothesis, households‘ current consumption responds to current disposable income; thus an increase government spending leads to increase in output and employment (Athukorala and Karunarathna, 2004; Khan et al., 2015). In contrast, under neoclassical theory and New Keynesian theories, expansion of government spending will crowd-out private consumption through negative wealth effect dominance (Agibaeva, 2015).
In the Sri Lankan context, although the government plays an important role in the economy, lack of fiscal discipline appears as one of the hurdles in accelerating economic growth due to a mismatch between government spending and revenue. Government expenditure, which consists of recurrent and capital expenditure shows an increasing trend while recurrent expenditure grew rapidly compared to the capital expenditure.. However, the government expects to stimulate economic activity with the help of engaging in a large range of government spending. Meanwhile, economic growth shows a decreasing trend in recent years. Since private consumption is a major component of aggregate demand, it is important to find ways to boost private consumption for smoothening of economic performance especially when there is a weak growth.
Since the relationship between government spending and private consumption is a major concern of current academic discourse, a large number of empirical studies has focused on it and present mixed results. Khan et al. (2015) found government spending to have a positive impact on private consumption implying that government spending is a very good instrument to boost the economy. Similarly, an increase in government purchases leads to an increase in output and private consumption. The increase in labor remuneration induces households to sacrifice leisure in favor of consumption (Ravn et. al, 2007). Moreover, government spending increases or crowds-in private consumption following a spending shock because of the multiplier effect (Blanchard & Perotti, 2002; Athukorala and Karunarathna, 2004). This positive effect is also justified by the empirical studies of Ganelli & Tervala (2009) & Ihori (1990). In contrast, according to a study of OECD countries conducted by Ho (2001), the permanent income hypothesis is rejected and the crowding-out effect of government spending is supported. Moreover, there is substitutability between government spending and private consumption in the US economy (Kormendi, 1983).
Thus, findings of empirical studies contribute to broadening the existing knowledge on government spending and private investment in different scenarios. However, in the Sri Lankan context, research on government spending and private consumption is inadequate to trace the effects and contribute towards poliy formulation. Meanwhile, economic growth in Sri Lanka is required to accelerate, especially through inducing greater aggregate demand since the growth rate has slowed down. Hence, considering the current importance, this study attempts to fill the existing knowledge gap by investigating the nexus between government spending and private consumption in Sri Lanka.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Saha, D.; Vasuprada, T.M.; Sharma, R.
Introduction
Western medicine, with recent advances in biotechnology and advanced standards for proving efficacy of cure and safety of drugs, has become the mainstream pharmaceutical intervention in healthcare relegating traditional cures to a subaltern space. This sharp change in preferred method for medical care is evident in most South Asian countries. Most of these countries have had thriving practices of traditional medicines in the past. For instance, Ayurveda has long been practiced in India and Sri Lanka, Unani in the ancient Arab world, and Siddha medicines in the state Tamil Nadu of India.
A standard problem with traditional medicine is the yardstick of quality and efficacy of cure. Western medicine has employed institutions like clinical trials, standardization, patenting of therapeutic molecules, research establishing biochemical equivalents between patented and generic drugs to address this issue. The design of these institution help bypass or solve the problem of asymmetric information that exists between drug manufacturers on the one hand and medical practitioners and patients on the other. Though many of these institutions create additional problems (patent thickets and enhanced drug prices for patented cures), it is an undeniable fact that the absence of some of these institutions prevent appropriate dissemination of information about quality of herbal drugs and their curative properties. All pharmaceutical research, be it traditional or western, share or have some commonality in their discovery process. Traditional medicine, till recently, has shied away from standards established by western medicines regarding novelty (patents) or efficacy of cure (clinical trials) (Saha & Vasuprada, 2018). The abundance of practitioners who have little scientific knowledge might have been the reason for the decline of the systems of traditional medicine. It is also becoming increasingly hard to distinguish between the quack and the real doctor in the latter discipline of medical cure at present. The decline could also possibly be due to the patient‘s preferences for the kind of treatment they want to go for. Glynn & Heymann (1985) find that western medicine is dominant due to the reasons that it exhibits efficacy of cure, places no dietary restrictions, and also that the government provides free treatment as opposed to Ayurvedic treatment. So, problems like fractures, mental illnesses among various others, lie in the realm of indigenous medical systems, whereas others which demand immediate action attract western medicine. In all, the demand and practice of traditional medicine is under the shadow of great doubt and hence looking at the status of research and innovation in traditional medicine becomes important to shed light on the process by which a dominant system of medicine becomes marginalized.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Bhatnagar, A.; Dasgupta, A.; Anha, R.
Introduction
Afghanistan‘s economy possesses some features that are hard to find in any other South Asian economy (for example, the age composition of Afghanistan). According to the Afghanistan Living Condition Survey (ALCS) 2014, nearly half of the country‘s population is less than 15 years old. The Fertility Rate in Afghanistan, although it is still very high at around 6, is showing a downward trend. This means that, while other South Asian countries are currently experiencing their demographic dividend, Afghanistan is yet to enter this phase. This gives Afghanistan a unique opportunity to prepare itself, so that it could better reap the benefit of its demographic dividend.
When considering the present condition of Afghanistan‘s economy, the future doesn‘t look promising. Afghanistan is trapped in a chronic employment crisis. The unemployment rate, according to the 2014 Afghanistan Living Condition Survey (ALCS) Round was about 22.6 per cent, which further increased to 23.9 per cent in 2017. Due to the very young population of Afghanistan, the dependency ratio is already very high (close to 100). To worsen the situation, the female labor force participation rate in Afghanistan is abysmally low. In this study, we look at the determinants of labour market participation decisions of women in Afghanistan. It also focuses on the social and economic determinants of female labor force participation decision, with major focus on education. Furthermore, we will try to identify the factors that ultimately lead to women being remuneratively employed, once they enter the labour force.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Pusparasa, A.
Introduction
The terms of trade is used as an indicator of a country‘s economic condition. It is measured by domestic export price divided by the price of imports (Sherbourne, 2009). In the presence of world global integrations or disintegrations, where export prices converge or diverge worldwide, terms of trade have even more influence on economic growth (Wong, 2009; Blattman, Hwang & Williamson, 2003). An improvement of an economy‘s terms of trade is a result of a rise in the price of exports relative to the price of imports and a deterioration is induced by a rise of the price of imports relative to the price of exports over a given time period. Declining of terms of trade is one of the main reasons for an income gap between developed and developing countries. Increase in terms of trade would lead to increase in investment and thus economic growth will increase (Jawaid and Raza, 2012).
A number of studies have been extensively arguing the impact of terms of trade on economic growth. Most of them identified a positive effect (e.g. Jawaid and Raza 2012; Mputu 2016) while some of the studies reported an adverse effect (e.g., Kalumbu and Sheefeni 2014; Jebran et al 2018). This indicates that there is no consensus among the researchers regarding the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth. In sum, according to the existing literature, terms of trade plays a significant role in determining the growth. In this regard, although the government of Sri Lanka (SL) has made a tremendous effort to increase the terms of trade through the implementation of favorable export and import policies since 1977, the amount of terms of trade in SL is still very low and has high fluctuations. Moreover, the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in Sri Lanka remains scantly researched in recent time and it is a widely debated issue. Thus, this study attempts to examine the influence of terms of trade on economic growth.
Introduction
Child mortality is regarded as one of the best measures of the health status of a country. It is also considered as the key factor that indicates the inclusive and sustainable development of human capital in any economy. The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries (White, 1999). After the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) in the 1990s we have seen a remarkable decrease in infant mortality among children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again (Hanmer, Lensik et al, 2003). South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are the poorest and the most underdeveloped parts of the developing world, with the worst absolute and relative indicators of health and poverty in the world. These two regions have some of the highest child and infant mortality rates (IMR) in the developing world.
Pakistan tends to perform relatively poorly. In this study I analyzed why infant mortality rates are relatively very high in the era of MDGS and point towards policy recommendations for reducation in infant mortality rates. The graph below makes some comparisons of Infant Mortality Rates in the 1990s and 2015 world wide.
We divide the world infant mortality rates into bins of size ten and compare the number of countries in 1990 and 2015 to show the progress of the world in the era given in Figure1. There were only thirty four countries whose infant mortality rates lies between zero and ten indicated by black dotted graph in 1990. In the other graph of 2015 however, this number increased to seventy five, which is more than double, showing a significant reduction in infant mortality rates during the era of MDG‘s in each Bin.
We know that infant mortality rates are declining in Pakistan but the rate at which IMR is decreasing is painfully slow and it will take decades to overcome the issue of high IMR at the pace we are moving. So, this study recommends policies and best practices in the region that will act a catalyst to increase the pace of reduction in IMR. There were a lot of studies done on Infant Mortality Rates but this study is unique in the context of Pakistan because it will provide provincial analysis at grassroots level, which will help the provincial government to take measures accordingly as all provinces in Pakistan are not consistent in reducing IMR.
(University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, 2019-10-17) Mayoshi, R. M. M.; Vidanage, T. N.
Introduction
In general, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows play an increasingly strong impetus for economic development and progress of countries. It is considered as one of the major factors of growth in countries like Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh. According to Omisakin et.al. (2009), FDI serves as an important source of funds supply for domestic investment, thus promoting capital formation in the host country. FDI clearly brings investment finance and can contribute to employment. Technology and skills transfer, pioneering of new industries and export markets, formation of new clusters as anchor investors and creation of linkages with, and associated upgrading of competencies of local enterprises are perceived major benefits of FDI (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2004). In the particular case of FDI inflow to Sri Lanka, it can play a major role in the economy. In 2017, net FDI inflows for Sri Lanka were 1,374 million US dollars, an increase from 193 million US dollars in 1998, growing at an average annual rate of 15.34% (Central Bank Annual Report, 2017).
There are many studies showing the relationship between FDI and trade openness for a number of counties. According to Sazali et.al. (2018) trade openness has a positive and significant impact on FDI in Malaysia. Liargovas and Skandalis (2012) found that trade openness contributes positively to the inflow of FDI in developing economies. Athukorala and Karunarathna (2004) found that the direction of causality was not towards FDI to GDP growth and the impact of domestic investment and trade liberalisation have a positive effect on GDP growth. Literature survey revealed the absence of studies on causal links between trade openness and foreign direct investment in Sri Lanka; hence it is a very important area to reach a high economic growth position in the future.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Rajapaksha, K.
Introduction
In the case of money, it becomes madness; madness, however, as a moment of economics and as a determinant of the practical life of peoples. – Karl Marx
Were Marx to write Capital today, or if the writing of capital were to pick up now where he left off then, the critique of political economy would necessarily morph into the domain of finance. – Randy Martin
This paper attempts to critically analyze the rise of finance in the 1970s under the global neoliberal regime and its systemic confrontation with the global financial crisis in 2007-08 through the analytical work of David Harvey, mainly The Brief History of Neoliberalism (2005) and The Enigma of Capital and the Crisis of Capitalism (2010). Harvey‘s comprehensive application of dialectical historical materialism on the one hand and the fresh look he brings into the Marxian analysis of capitalism in ‘the age of finance’ on the other inspired me to focus on his work and appreciate them with a critical sense.
The content of the paper consists of the following sections and Harvey‘s own articulation upon them. Especially, Harvey‘s fresh gaze upon the Marxian notion of ‘capital is not a thing but a flow’ and his application of the concept in order to understand the capitalist crises in 1970s and 2007 is central to the argument constructed in this paper. Then, how well Harvey argues against the notion of mainstream economics on the philosophical platform of ‘systemic risks verses internal contradiction of capital’ is discussed. Attached to that, the main focus of this paper is presented, ‘shifting the epicenter of the systemic crisis of capitalism from labor to finance’. Next, the background of Harvey‘s argument of ‘capital as a self-destructive and a destructive force’ is discussed as amalgamating with the concept ‘capital’s surplus absorption problem’, which as Harvey considers is one of the most magnified features in the last two crises and is becoming more and more challenging for the global capitalist elites.
Objective
The objective of this paper is to analyze how the configuration of the crisis of capitalism in the 1970s and the solutions that emerged from that crisis actually dictate the terms of the 2007-08 financial crisis. In other words how effectively capitalism was able to shift its intrinsic crisis nature from ‘the problem of labor’ to ‘the problem of finance’.
Methodology
The paper took into account only secondary sources and is developed in the form of a theoretical work of research. Both qualitative and quantitative data instruments are used. The main literature of the paper consists of David Harvey‘s The Condition of Postmodernity (1989), The Brief History of Neoliberalism (2005), The Enigma of Capital and the Crisis of Capitalism (2010), Marx, Capital and the Madness of Economic Reason (2017).
Results and Discussion
Capital is not a thing but a flow: Securing the motion of capital from 1970s to 2007: Harvey pointed out the inadequacy of the conventional version of the Marxian theory of crisis formation laid out in Capital, in order to understand the ″nature and epicenters″ of contemporary crises. Therefore, he insists on looking at the wider crisis-framework Marx laid out as a rough piece of work in The Grundrisse, according to Harvey, where Marx argues that the circulation and accumulation of capital cannot abide limits. If we try to understand capital as a thing, something solid and containing dead-labor, Harvey‟s position is, it would not be an accurate understanding and should not be a solid foundation in order to analyze capitalism and further, it will ultimately form an anti-dialectical version of Marxian analysis. According to Harvey, this focuses our attention upon those points in the circulation of capital where potential limits, blockages and barriers might arise, since these can produce crises of one sort or another (Harvey, 2010). In that sense, we can understand that how well but destructively capitalism in 1970s converted its blockages and submerged emerged social relations of that age by fluidizing social relationships, or in Harvey‟s terms, by financing everything (Harvey, 2005). In The Enigma, Harvey further elaborates the validity of this claim by highlighting how capital, in its strategy, financing everything, successfully combined different spheres of the society, traditionally viewed as unrelated, separated and ″non-financial″. ″Capital cannot circulate or accumulate without touching upon each and all of these activity spheres in some way″ (p.124). ″Each sphere″, Harvey argues, ″evolves on its own account but always in dynamic interaction with the others″ (p.123). These spheres are: technologies and organizational forms; social relations; institutional and administrative arrangements; production and labor processes; relations to nature; the reproduction of daily life and of the species; and ″mental conceptions of the world″ (p.123) (Harvey, 2010). In Harvey‘s account in both recent crises of capitalism two main things occur. Firstly, the flow or the motion of capital is stopped due to its self-contradictory nature and secondly, capitalism successfully constitutes solutions in order to re-channel and secure the fluidity of capital at a global scale at a massive human and interestingly, at a massive financial cost.
Systemic Risk verses Internal Contradictions of Capital: Harvey basically raises the question, from where these so called ‘systemic risks’ that are falsely explained by the neoclassical economics actually come from. Obviously, the answer Harvey articulated is that they are embedded within the very nature of capital itself. In that sense, the financial crisis took place not due to the mismanagement of systemic risks but due to the very embodiment of capitalism. Further, if there was mismanagement appearing globally, it was not due to an unintended policy choice but due to an intended one, which consisted of the deregulation of finance, absolutely in order to encourage the motion of so called ‘financing everything’. Monetarism, according to Harvey, was a sufficient factor but not the necessary factor in order to assemble the global force of neoliberalism and restore class power against poor and working class all around the world. The Enigma of Capital vigorously attacked two things, capitalism and the understanding of capitalism in mainstream neoclassical economics. Harvey pointed out that while there are many possible realistic ways to explain the crisis which began in 2007, mainstream economists, specially sheltered in the London School of Economics, attempted mystify the real causes of the crisis by saying it occurred due to ″systemic risks″. Harvey denies the legitimacy of the claim and the existence of ″systemic risks″ that are yet to be known and hard to avoid according to mainstream economics and proposed the Marxian conception ‘contradictions of capital’.
The shift of the epicenter of crisis from labor to finance: Harvey points out that during the crisis of 2007 nobody accused labor or unions for being greedy and causing the ongoing crisis. Nobody even mentioned the relevance of labor in order to understand the present crisis, Harvey mentioned in one of his lectures in 2008. At the epicenter of the problem was the mountain of ‘toxic’ mortgage-backed securities held by banks or marketed to unsuspecting investors all around the world (Harvey, 2010). But the role of labor is important in order to understand the present crisis because it is dominated by capital (or financial capital systematically) and submerged under the ‘necessary fluidity’ for capital to cherish. The central thesis of The Brief History and The Enigma is that the solutions of the crisis of the 1970s fundamentally constituted the necessary causes of the global financial crisis. In other words, financialization, which became the slogan of profitability and the globally extended deregulation mechanism which was hailed as ‘allowing the market to emancipate the humankind’, systematically shifted the cause of capitalist crisis from labor to finance.
Capital as a self-destructive force and a destructive force: In both The Brief History and The Enigma Harvey identifies capital not only as a self- destructive force but also as a destructive force. In other words it restructures itself not only at its cost but also at the cost of others, human beings and nature. As previously mentioned, in order to contain the compounding growth rate and reinvest in profitable means capital has to destroy a certain proportion of its ‘expired wealth’ and destroy the old and slow spatiotemporal dimensions to alter them with newer and faster ones. This process of destruction is involved with science and technology, engineering, art and craft, law and the military, etc. Self-destruction of capital takes place, according to Joseph Schumpeter, through the practices of ″invention and innovation″ under capitalism. Nevertheless, according to Harvey, this process was never a peaceful one. It was a violent and forceful process that was fundamentally driven by the class interests of the bourgeoisie.
In The Brief History of Neoliberalism Harvey provides a comprehensive account in order to depict the ″necessary violence″ that had to be unleashed in order to ″unite the world″ under the neoliberal order. His account consisted of the violent history of Chile during the military dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet, Thatcher‟s brutal attack on the miners and pioneering the long stretch of privatization in UK and Regan‘s attack on aviation unions in the USA. This violence is not necessarily depicted by the number of political killings or imprisonments but in terms of the social control it systematically planted through the channels of economic means and respective power position in the process of production. The figure demonstrates the attack on labor by global elites in 1970s. The growing gap between productivity and real wages became ″an economic norm″ and never even identified as a fundamental issue embedded within the logic of capitalism. According to Harvey, this process was absolutely intended and legitimized by the top 1% of the US population, ″a non-violent strategy″ to keep labor under pressure.
The Surplus absorption problem of Capital: From stagflation to global financial crisis: The surplus absorption problem of capitalism was highly magnified and further aggravated during the financial crisis. Harvey pointed out that any capitalist economy must expand at a rate of about 3% per annum, which means more and more surplus must be absorbed by the system and there should be a mechanism to provide room for this ever-growing mechanism in-built within the capitalist growth logic. Harvey calls this necessary rate of surplus absorption ―the compound growth rate‖. If we are to return to 3 per cent compound growth today, $1.6 trillion in surplus capital would need to be profitably invested. If sustained growth returns, the world economy will need to absorb some $3 trillion in surplus capital by 2030 (Harvey, 2010, 26-27). The key point that should be highlighted here is that even though capitalism has generated more means to invest, to reproduce, to consume and to exploit; keeping up with this ever-expanding and socially limiting compounding growth rate is becoming problematic to capitalism. The stoppage of this compounding growth rate in 1930s was treated with Keynesian demand stimulations, then in the 1970s with destructive neoliberal policies and then in 2008 with a massive state bail-out and financial stimulation packages. The main question Harvey raises is that, where does the system go? And what would be the solution for the next compounding growth rate stoppage (the next crisis), within a space where the possible solutions are getting limited and socially questioned? According to Harvey, the financial system is subjected to too many experiments and society as a whole is too exhausted. The crisis erupted in 2007 brought a wider picture about these human realities on one hand and on the other it brought the underlying capital surplus absorption problem to the surface, which became a global phenomenon under neoliberal globalization.
Conclusion
David Harvey‘s analysis that developed through, specifically, The Brief History of Neoliberalism and The Enigma of Capital and the End of Capitalism is vital in order to understand the systemic crisis of capitalism and different epochal epicenters of the same crisis. Harvey‘s main argument that can be desterilized through the above literature is that the necessary elemental motions (reasons or causes) of the global financial crisis of 2007 were embedded in the solutions constituted; not only to get away from the crisis of 1970 but also to make neoliberalism the hegemonic order. In other word, the repercussions of the elitists‘ political project in the 70s, vicious attack on labor and subordinating the social position and class power of labor as positioning finance as the center of the economic reality, counterattacked as a ‘dialectical historical material reality’ in the next capitalist crisis. In Marxian terms, this entire process can be identified as a process of attacking, undermining and delaying the embedded internal contradictions of capitalism. As Anwar Shaikh demonstrated in his work with close attention, this is the fundamental nature of the existing economic order that ‘disorder becomes the order’. For Harvey this disorder continuously creates and corrects the appropriate time and space sequences of capital, as he asserts, which is the ―lifeblood that flows through the body politics”.
These epicenters of two crises, as Harvey stresses, subjected to shifting, in a highly politically and theoretically sophisticated manner, can be simply illustrated by shifting the epicenter of the crisis of the 1970s from Labor to finance in 2007-08. Harvey convincingly ascertained that capital never solves its crisis tendencies but it merely shuffles them around. Further, through the aspect of self-destructive nature of capital, Harvey demonstrated how destructive and irrational capital can be to humans and nature while ‘correcting’ the irrationalities of capitalism. This shift of the epicenter of crises proves that this irrational logic can typically lead the world to new configurations, solutions, advanced development and financial models, spheres of surplus to be accumulated and new forms of class power. Nevertheless, those will merely do nothing except deepening and further politicizing the existing crisis of global capitalism.
References
Harvey, D. (2010). The Enigma of Capital and the Crisis of Capitalism. Oxford University Press.
Harvey, D. (2017). Marx, Capital and the Madness of Economic Reason. London: Profile Books.
Marx, K. and F. Engels. (2005). The Communist Manifesto and Other Writings. New York: Barnes and Noble Books.
Shaikh, A. (2016). Capitalism: Competition, Conflict and Crisis. Oxford University Press
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Dovleac, L.; Brătucu,T. O.; Brătucu, G.; Chițu, I. B.
Introduction
This paper includes an analysis of Romanian students‘ opinions regarding the main values associated with the subjective well-being concept. A deeper understanding of subjective well-being among the young Romanian population leads to the development of a more sustainable society where individuals, organisations and policy makers are able to make better decisions. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2015) measures subjective well-being considering: material condition (income and wealth, jobs and earnings, work-life balance, housing, environmental quality) and quality of life (health status, education and skills, social connections and personal security). Well-being is tightly connected to the concept of sustainability. In measuring a country‘s sustainability, the Sustainable Society Index is based on human, environmental and economic well-being (Sustainable Society Foundations, 2012). The sustainability of well-being is reflected in the need to preserve four types of capital: natural, human, social and economic (OECD, 2015). The research on youth well-being is quite limited and the authors considered it essential to conduct a more in-depth analysis about this age group. Inside the European Union, Romania has one of the highest percentages of young people willing to emigrate for improving their quality of life - 30% (Sandu et al., 2014). The research results are valuable by adding to the international framework the perspective of the young population from Romania, a South-Eastern European country with a different approach of the topic from other countries. The research problem is to understand the meaning of subjective well-being for these students, to identify the most cherished values and to analyse if there is a different perception between males and females regarding this matter.
Objectives
The aim of this paper is to present the results of a survey which quantifies the Romanian students‘ opinions about the most important values of subjective well-being and their role for creating a sustainable society.
Methodology
To achieve the objective, the authors conducted a quantitative marketing research involving 1122 students (aged 18-35) from 10 Romanian universities. The authors collected the data during December 2016 and January 2017 using an online questionnaire. The sample was built using multistage sampling based on geographical area, university size, faculty profile and the study level. So, inside the sample 55% of respondents are Bachelor‘s students, 35% - Master‘s students and 10% - PhD Students. The sample structure includes 68.5% females and 31.5% males. The research variables were selected based on several studies which identified the factors that substantiate the well-being of the young generation; satisfaction regarding personal fulfilment, interpersonal relationships at job and during their free time, finding a sense in life and happiness, health, education, social relationships and environment, finding a stable job and professional satisfaction (Fabbrizzi et al, 2016). The data collected was analysed using the statistical software SPSS 17.
Results and Discussion
Inside this study, the Romanian students were asked to rank 10 values associated with the well-being concept. Overall, the students have mentioned happiness as being the most important value of subjective well-being followed by freedom and outdoor activities. An analysis by gender shows that there is a difference of perspective. The females ranked the values exactly as mentioned above – happiness, freedom and outdoor activities. The males made a different ranking: personal income, happiness, freedom. One explanation could be the desire of men to support their family, bringing material wealth.
Further, the sources of happiness were identified in this study. The majority of the respondents mentioned family as being the major source of happiness. In second place, males mentioned personal income, compared to females who chose career. In third place both males and females mentioned their friends as being an important well-being value. Young people under the age of 25 need friends with the same concerns to provide mutual support. The study results show that freedom is a well-being value which also generates happiness. The meaning of freedom is shown in Table 2.
A person considers herself free when he can take action according to his desires or in the absence of constraints. The study‘s results in the table below show that the freedom of decision is the first sense given to freedom by 46.1% of males and 49% of females. Freedom of speech is the second meaning of freedom cherished by 16.9% males and 24.6% females.
The third important subjective well-being value mentioned by respondents is the time spent on outdoor activities. The results of the study show that students spend an average of 10.37 hours per week in nature (Table 3).
The analysis of age groups shows that although it would be expected for younger students to spend more time outdoors (due to the fact they have more free time), the results show something different. The students aged 26- 35 are those who spend the highest amount of hours outdoor – an average of 13.63 hours/week.
Conclusion
The youth population represent a valuable resource for each country‘s development and Romanian institutions need to make an effort in order to create a safe and promising environment. Considering the high percentage of youth willing to leave the country for a better life (30%) and the most important well-being values resulting from this study, the authors suppose that the Romanian young generation is not satisfied with the level of happiness and freedom and the amount of free time spent on outdoor activities. Based on this study results, all the responsible parties could apply measures in order to encourage the young generation to remain in the country. Through such analyses, the government could achieve a better understanding of how to use the resources on activities and policies which provide the biggest well-being benefits for citizens (Cloutier et al, 2013). If youth are given more opportunities to have a meaningful experience they would be more likely to remain inside the country building a sustainable society. Romanian institutions should create long term strategies for supporting this generation because its current well-being will influence the future well-being of an entire nation.
References
Cloutier, S., Larson, L., and Jambeck, J.(2013). Are sustainable cities "happy" cities? Associations between sustainable development and human well-being in urban areas of the United States. Environment, Development and Sustainability.16(3): 633-647.
OECD.(2015). How's Life? 2015 Measuring Well-being, OECD Publishing. [pdf] OECD.
Sustainable Society Foundations.(2012). Measuring wellbeing and progress towards sustainability [pdf] Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/download/factsheets/bg dp-ve-ssi.pdf.
Fabbrizzi, S., F., Maggino, N., Marinelli, S., Menghini, Ricci, C.(2016). Sustainability and Well-being: The Perception of Younger Generations and their Expectations. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 8: 592-601.
Introduction
It is important to analyze the impact of tax revenues on economic growth due to the fact that the state uses fiscal policy as an instrument to control the economy. A country‘s tax system is one of the determinants of other macroeconomic indices such as economic growth, public debt, fiscal deficit and inflation. Likewise, the macroeconomic status of a country has a major bearing on its tax structure. Specifically, there exists a relationship between the level of economic growth and development and the tax structure. Indeed, it has been argued that the level of economic development has a very strong impact on a country‘s tax base (Musgrave, 1969). Currently, Sri Lanka‘s fiscal and taxation system is at a critical juncture. While overall GDP as well as per capita income have been steadily increasing, total government revenue and tax revenue have been decreasing over time (Amirthalingam, 2013). The total revenue collection for the year, amounting to Rs.641,547 million shows an increase of Rs.81,124 million or 14.47% over that of the previous year. It amounted to a 38.02% contribution to total Government Revenue and 5.42% to GDP of the year (Department of Inland Revenue, 2016).
Domestic conflict in the north and the east of the country has severely affected Sri Lanka‘s economic growth. It can be seen that during the 1970s, per capita GDP growth was on average 5.6 percent and due to the civil war in the 1980s it fell down to only 1.6 percent. However, in spite of the impacts of civil war, economic growth has improved during the 1990s and later. Per capita GDP growth was on average 4 percent during the 1990s and in 2007 it was 4.9 percent and then decreased to -1.5% in 2001 due to the ethnic conflict. However it was recorded as 7.3% in 2013. But GDP growth in 2016 was 5.4 percent (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2016).
There is a problem in Sri Lanka which is, tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has continuously declined. Direct taxes (mainly income taxes) as a percentage of GDP remained at an average of 2.5 per cent during 1990-2016 (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2016). It shows that the decline in the tax ratio is clearly due to a decline of indirect taxes as a percentage of GDP. There are two issues here. On the one hand, Sri Lanka could not prevent the declining trend of indirect tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, and on the other hand the country could not enhance the direct tax revenue as a percentage of GDP with a view to offsetting the decline of indirect tax revenue as a percentage of GDP.
The theoretical literature suggests that taxes have a negative effect on economic growth (Athukorala and Karunarathna, 2004). Thus, high tax rates diminish economic growth. The reason for this is that higher rates may be more distortionary and hence impact growth negatively while lower rates may generate revenues that are spent in productive ways. However, the empirical literature suggests both direct and inverse relationship between tax burden and rates of growth. Mashkoar et al. (2010) examine the association among tax revenues and the speed of economic growth, for Pakistan by taking annual data from 1973 to 2008 and applying an ARDL approach. Findings show that a high rate of direct taxes would augment real economic growth. Taha et al. (2011) examine the causal relationship between these two variables, both in the short run and the long run. Results show that there is a unidirectional connection between economic growth and tax revenues. In the Sri Lankan context there is no empirical study regarding the dynamic relationship between tax revenue and economic growth. Therefore, this study is intended to fill the study gap to help fiscal policy making in Sri Lanka.
Objective
The objective of the study is to examine the impact of tax revenue on economic growth of Sri Lanka.
Methodology
Annual data of Sri Lanka over the period of 1990-2016 have been used in this study. The data of LNRGDP (Real Gross Domestic Product) is a dependent variable, real GDP growth was bring into play as a substitute (proxy) for economic growth. It was collected from annual reports of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). LNTTR (total tax revenue) is a combination of direct and indirect taxes, PSE is school enrollment, secondary (gross), IMP represents imports of goods and services, FDI is foreign direct investment(net), CMD are customs and other import duties, LAF is Labour force participation (total), and were extracted from the World Development Indicator (WDI) database of the World Bank. Endogenous growth models developed by Barro (1990), Mendosa, Milesi-Ferreti and Asea (1997) predict that fiscal policy can affect the level of product and long run economic growth. Thus, we construct a regression model based on the above mentioned endogenous growth model. Model estimation begins with the analysis of the order of integration of each variable using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) unit root tests for this analysis. The co-integration test was conducted using the Johansen approach to test for long run relationship between variables. The model can be described as:
The following error correction model (ECM) was employed to test for the short-run relationship between variables.
where, Ψ = αβ’. α : is the (7x1) vector of speed of adjustment co-efficient, β’ : (1x7) vector of co-integrating coefficients and
is a vector of endogenous variables, is the lagged value of the variables and is the white noise error term.
Results and Discussion
Based on the ADF and PP unit root tests, all variables of this study are stationary at level form. Therefore, this result also suggests that all eight variables are integrated in the same order, i.e. I(1). Once we established the order of integration, the study process requires the estimation of the long-run relationships among the variables included. However, before estimating this relationship we need to identify the optimal lag length of the model. Using VAR model, all the lag length selection criteria except AIC suggest the use of one lag as optimal lag length. Therefore, we included one lag in our model. Trace test statistics identified one co-integrating relation in the system of equations at 5% level of significance since we reject null hypothesis at rank 0 but we failed to reject null hypothesis at rank 1. Following equation shows the long run relationship of the Model.
As shown in Equation 3, the results of all variables are significant at 5% level of significance in the long-run. Total tax revenues have a negative relationship with economic growth, while labour force, foreign direct investment, customs and other import duties, school enrollment and imports have a positive link with economic growth. Due to a one percent increase in total tax revenues, economic growth would be reduced by 1.11 percent in the long run. A negative and significant error correction coefficient (-0.016) of LNRGDP reveals that 1.6 % disequilibrium is corrected each year which implies that Real GDP growth moves downward towards long run equilibrium path.
Table 1 shows the short-run negative relationship between RGDP growth and Total Tax Revenue. And also foreign direct investment, customs and other import duties and import have a positive impact on Real GDP growth. But other variables (LNLAF, LNSEE) do not have a significant impact on economic growth in the short run in models.
Conclusion
The major intention of this research is to investigate the association, involving total tax revenue and economic growth, over the period 1990- 2016, in both long and short run. Total tax revenues have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. Due to a one percent increase in total taxes, economic growth would decrease by 1.113 percent. In the short run, total taxes revenue has a positive impact on economic growth.
There is also a need to augment the tax base/network and setting good precedence with improved tax administration. Therefore the research results show that total taxes have a negative impact on economic growth. Due to weaknesses in tax revenue administration, the level of tax collection continues to be lower than optimal in Sri Lanka (Waidyasekera, 2004). This could be the reason for negative impact of total tax revenue on economic growth. Political favoritism, political influence, and a lack of a clear cut political rationale on taxation have also adversely affected the tax revenue potential (Amirthalingam, 2010). Thus, special attention needs to be given by the government in order to promote RGDP growth rate and fiscal consolidation by reforming tax policy.
References
Athukorala, W. and K.M.R. Karunarathna. (2004). The Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth: evidence from Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Economic Journal, 5(2): 97-134.
Arisoy, I., and I. Unlukaplan. (2010). Tax Composition and Growth in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 59: 50-61.
Brasoveanu, L. O., and I.Brasoveanu.(2008). Thecorrelation between fiscal policy and economic growth.Theoretical and Applied Economics, 7(524): 19-26.
Keho, Y. (2011). Tax structure and economic growth in Cote d‘Ivoire: Are some taxes better than others? Asian Economic and Financial Review, 1(4): 226-235.
Mashkoor, M., Yahya, S. and S. A. Ali. (2010). Tax revenue and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Pakistan. World Applied Science Journal, 10(11): 1283-1289.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Madadeniya, M. G. C. N.; Sivarajasingham, S.
Introduction
Trade is generally identified as a key engine of economic growth and welfare. Therefore, countries around the world continuously attempt to develop trade relationships with each other. Sri Lanka has signed many of its trade agreements with other SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries. In addition to the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and bilateral trade agreements with India and Pakistan, another FTA is expected to be signed with Bangladesh. Apart from its continuing interest in trading with SAARC countries, Sri Lanka is also exploring possibilities for trade beyond SAARC. In fact, the country is currently more interested in developing its bilateral trade relationships with ASEAN (Association of the Southeast Asian Nations) countries. Sri Lanka‘s first ever FTA with an ASEAN member was signed in January 2018, with Singapore. It is also planning to sign trade agreements with three other ASEAN countries which are Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Hence, this paper aims to analyse whether it is trade with SAARC or trade with ASEAN which can promote economic growth in Sri Lanka.
Few studies have focused on the impact of trade with SAARC and ASEAN on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Almost all of those studies are descriptive and there is hardly any empirical study conducted on the particular issue. Most of the researchers recommend that under the current economic and political circumstances, trading with other countries is better for economic growth in Sri Lanka than trading with SAARC members. Bandara and Yu (2001) find that unilateral liberalisation would benefit South Asian countries much more than preferential liberalisation. Weerakoon and Wijayasiri (2001) show that the technology, investment and trade needs of Sri Lanka are more closely aligned to those of its East Asian neighbours than to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal or the Maldives. Ali and Talukder (2009) find that, with an insignificant share in world trade and persistent high levels of tariff barriers, the gains from free trade arrangements in the South Asian region are likely to be minimal. They highlight the possibility that small countries may lose and large countries may gain from an FTA in such a region. However, they emphasize the importance of exposure to a regional market for an economy in order to expand market size, gain economies of scale and increase the competitiveness of domestic firms.
Certain studies have emphasized that developing trade relationships with India is important for Sri Lanka to gain access to Southeast Asia. Weerakoon and Perera (2014) show that Sri Lanka can benefit from greater connectivity with South and Southeast Asia by pursuing closer economic integration with its neighbours. They argue that Sri Lanka should expand the current bilateral free trade agreement with India because many of the country‘s competitors in the Asian region have gained access to markets through such beneficial deals. Bhattacharyay (2014) also shows that integrating India - and through India other major South Asian economies such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka - to the South East Asian production network will create win-win situations for both regions. Through this, it is expected to reduce the excessive dependence of South Asia on advanced countries in the West. However, this leads to a new question whether the small countries in South Asia will then start to depend on India.
Objectives
Accordingly, the two objectives of this study are to analyse the growth contribution of SAARC-Sri Lanka trade and ASEAN-Sri Lanka trade, and thereby draw policy implications of the findings.
Methodology
There is hardly any empirical study on the growth contribution of trade with SAARC and ASEAN for Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study has attempted to provide a foundation to conduct an empirical analysis on the particular issue.
This study conducted a time series analysis on the impact of trade with SAARC and ASEAN on economic growth in Sri Lanka, during 1990-2016. In constructing the model, the Neo-classical growth accounting equation was used, which explains what part of growth in total output is due to growth in different factors of production. Neo-classical growth theory shows that the output of an economy is determined by three factors, which are capital, labour and technology. Considering trade as another determinant of economic growth, the following regression model was constructed.
where LNGDP is the log of real GDP, LNGCF is the log of real gross capital formation, LFPR is the labour force participation rate, SAARC is the log of total trade with SAARC (due to the lack of data, Bhutan and Nepal were excluded), ASEAN is the log of total trade with ASEAN (due to the lack of data, Brunei, Cambodia and Laos were excluded), ε is the error term and the subscript t indicates time. All the variables are relevant to Sri Lanka and secondary data were collected from two online databases which are World Development Indicators and ARIC Integration Indicators.
Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips Perron unit root tests were used to check whether the variables are stationary. Schwarz criterion was used as the model selection criterion. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach was used to study the long run equilibrium relationship between variables. ARDL Error Correction Model was estimated to study the short run relationship between variables. The level of significance considered in the analysis is 5 percent. Diagnostic Tests were conducted to check whether the results are robust. The tests conducted are, Jarque-Bera test to check whether the residuals are normally distributed, Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test to detect serial correlation among residuals, Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey test to detect heteroscedasticity in the model, Ramsey RESET test to check whether the model is specified correctly. Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) test and Cumulative Sum Squares (CUSUMSQ) test to check the stability of the model.
Results and Discussion
After confirming that there is cointegration among variables in the model through the ARDL bounds test, ARDL long run and short run estimations were derived. Accordingly, trade with SAARC as well as with ASEAN has a positive and significant impact on the GDP of Sri Lanka in the long run. When trade with SAARC increases by 1 percent, the GDP of Sri Lanka increases by 13.6 percent, ceteris paribus. When trade with ASEAN increases by 1 percent, the GDP of Sri Lanka increases by 8.9 percent, ceteris paribus. However, in the short run, trade with SAARC has a negative impact on Sri Lanka‘s GDP. When trade with SAARC increases by 1 percent, GDP decreases by 2.3 percent in the short run, ceteris paribus. In the short run, trade with ASEAN has a positive impact on Sri Lanka‘s GDP only at 10 percent level of significance. Gross capital formation has a positive and significant impact on the GDP of Sri Lanka both in the long run and short run. However, labour force participation rate has no impact on the GDP of Sri Lanka either in the long run or short run. The Error Correction Term which is negative and significant shows that the model is stable in the long run and there is long run causality. GDP growth moves back to the equilibrium path and the disequilibrium error is corrected by 38% each year following an exogenous shock. All the diagnostic tests proved that there are no diagnostic errors in the model and that the results are robust.
According to the findings, trading with both SAARC and ASEAN promotes economic growth in Sri Lanka in the long run. It should be noted that in 2016, SAARC accounted for 10 percent of Sri Lanka‘s exports and 22 percent of the country‘s imports. ASEAN accounted for only 3 percent of Sri Lanka‘s exports and 15 percent of the country‘s imports. However, Sri Lanka‘s trade with SAARC is mainly dominated by India. In 2016, India accounted for around 72 percent of Sri Lanka‘s exports to SAARC and 90 percent of its imports from SAARC. In fact, India is Sri Lanka‘s largest origin of imports after China. But Sri Lanka imports from Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia more than from any SAARC country except for India. Further, Bangladesh, Maldives and Singapore each accounts for around 1 percent of Sri Lanka‘s exports. Thus, India should have played a significant role behind the impact of trade with SAARC on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Among ASEAN countries, Singapore has the largest effect on Sri Lanka‘s trade.
Conclusion
This study followed Neoclassical growth theory in a time series analysis conducted to address the problem, ‘which is better for economic growth in Sri Lanka, trade with SAARC or trade with ASEAN?, considering the period from 1990 to 2016. The main objectives of the study were to analyse the growth contribution of SAARC-Sri Lanka trade and ASEAN-Sri Lanka trade, and thereby draw policy implications of the findings. The results showed that both ways of trading promote economic growth in Sri Lanka in the long run. Therefore, Sri Lanka should expand its trade with countries in both regions in order to reap growth benefits in the long run. In fact, the country should improve its trade relationships with India and Singapore.
It is likely that trading with SAARC promotes economic growth in Sri Lanka, especially because of free trade agreements with India and Pakistan. However, although with no trade agreements signed during the period considered, trade with ASEAN has also contributed significantly to economic growth in Sri Lanka. Given that ASEAN is a region with some high income economies with a considerable population and exporting high technology products, this region can have more growth potential than SAARC. Therefore, it can be concluded that Sri Lanka‘s FTAs with ASEAN countries can be beneficial for the future economic growth in the country. However, policy makers should make sure that the prospective agreements are designed so as to give the maximum possible benefit to Sri Lanka.
References
Ali, E. and Talukder, D. K. (2009). Preferential trade among the SAARC countries: Prospects and challenges of regional integration in South Asia. Joaag, 4(1): 47-59.
Bandara, J. S. and Yu, W. (2003). How desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A quantitative economic assessment. The World Economy, 26(9):1293-1323.
Bhattacharyay, B. (2014). Prospects and Challenges of Integrating South and Southeast Asia. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 4(2014): 40-66.
Weerakoon, D. and Perera, N. (2014).The Role of Sri Lanka in Enhancing Connectivity between South Asia and Southeast Asia‘. ADBI Working paper series, No. 487.
Weerakoon, D. and Wijayasiri, J. (2001).Regional Economic Cooperation in South Asia: A Sri Lankan Perspective. IPS Research Studies: International Economic Series, No.6.
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Tofan, M. Ș.; Brătucu, G.; Chițu, I. B.; Dovleac, L.
Introduction
There is a wide variety of health systems around the world, with many organizational histories and structures as nations. By default, each country has to create and develop health systems according to its needs and resources, although common principles are found in almost all health systems. Since 2000, more and more initiatives have been taken at the international level to strengthen national sanitary systems. Given this scope, it is necessary to have a clear and unrestricted vision of national health systems that could generate new global health developments (Handler et al. 2001).
Globalization works with mechanisms that influence each other, such as market liberalization, integration policies and institutions, the emergence of new technologies and international rules (Eșanu 2012). At the theoretical level, each country has resources available if it is effectively prioritized. A study conducted by the European Commission in 2013 reveals that 73% of Romanians consider that the health services do not have the expected quality, while the average of those dissatisfied with the quality of medical services at the European Union level is 27%. Due to deficiencies of sanitary systems, it is important to focus on primary and family medicine, accessible to those with low and very low income (World Health Organization and the World Bank 2017). There are a variety of reasons why people's needs are not satisfied, such as: services have too high rates, the distance to the unit/physician is too long (making them inaccessible), the waiting list is too long (appointments are hard to get).
Economic redistribution, as well as increased democratization of the processes associated with economic decision-making and the means of reproduction of social institutions, would lead to the development of the economy and health. The latter includes educational facilities, healthcare services and social services that could allow new generations to prevent serious or incurable diseases (Benatar et al. 2011). The health system in Romania has a very large gap compared to countries such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Greece, Bulgaria (EU Member States), but national development policies and strategies also aim at reducing this gap by: investing in the sanitary public system, implementing screening programs for incurable diseases, developing partnerships between private health clinics and EU health funds. Also, the importance of globalization could be seen through the development of partnerships between the national health system and other countries in order to treat Roman patients.
The death rate due to cancer in the European Union was 1,036 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015, with the highest death rates being Bulgaria (1,660 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by Romania (1,530 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) (Eurostat 2018). In Romania, in 1995 there were 36,673 new cases of tumor-based illnesses, and in 2016 the number of new cases reached 98,856. In terms of tumor-based deaths, in 1995, 37,359 people died of oncological diseases, and in 2016 the number of deaths reached 51,803.
The research problem is the analysis of statistics about the Romanian health system compared to the international ones regarding population access to treatment, education, screening programmes, in order to identify some solutions for catching up with the globalization of health system. The originality of the research comes from the authors‘ idea to identify the situation of Romania in comparison with the European Union in terms of healthcare and breast cancer statistics. This comparison was made taking into consideration the fact that Romania is a developing country which needs worthy models in order to protect its population‘s health.
Objectives
The paper aims to present the statistics on the Romanian public and privatehealthcare system and how health access can be difficult for some parts of the population. The research objective is to analyse health inequalities (access to healthcare, income) and how the lack of health education affects the statistics of breast cancer in the case of Romanian women. The purpose of these analyzes is to see the opportunities of the Romanian health system offered by globalization.
Methodology
To achieve the objective, the authors conducted a descriptive marketing research in order to present the bond between globalization and the Romanian health system in terms of breast cancer statistics and inequalities in access of healthcare because of the migration of human resources and the lack of primary health in the entire country. The lack of health education can lead to much higher spending for the state budget, making it much easier to prevent than to treat. This study is based on secondary data analysis. The data used for the analysis are obtained from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and from Eurostat (statistical office of the European Union).
Results and Discussion
In Romania, the evolution of the healthcare system is closely linked to medium and long-term economic development. Differences between areas in terms of the access and quality of healthcare services presents a gap that can only be recovered with well-established policies. The fragility of health system earnings has been seen as a response to economic, political and social changes and instability in recent years (Sen and Bonita 2011). Meanwhile, the private medical services market in Romania grows with about 10% per year and it was estimated in 2016 at over 700 million euro. In recent years, in Romania, the number of private health service providers has increased, largely due to the poor quality of public health services, outdated endowments, and equity of services. The public health system has a lot of gaps, not from the point of view of the physicians who provide services, but because of lack of a unitary health system.
According to Romanian National Institute of Statistics, at the end of 2016 there were 367 public hospitals, 187 private hospitals and 3 public hospitals with private areas. In 2007, there were 22 private hospitals in Romania, so their number increased more than eight times in ten years, while the number of public hospitals fell from 425 in 2007 to 366 in 2016. Romanians tend to choose a private hospital at the expense of a public hospital in the urban areas. The following chart is based on the Institute's data:
The European Commission's Working Paper "Investing in Health" shows that the health of the population also affects economic prosperity (European Union, 2018). Education has an essential role to play in preventing various diseases, and especially in understanding the strategies used to promote campaigns. Education includes components such as: patient education, school education, mass media, health communication (Nutbeam 2000). All these concepts are closely linked to globalization and adaptation to the highest standards of population health. In the last few years, public authorities have shown a growing concern to provide quality health services and the increase in health budgets has exacerbated the need for information and by default the research on the accessibility, quality and cost of providing good health services (Enăchescu 2007).
In fact, Romania is ranked the penultimate place in Europe as regards the percentage of the female population that has breast-controlled at least once in life and the last place in terms of the number of women who have performed a test at least once in their life in order to prevent cervical cancer. The study conducted by the European Union in 2012 is still valid today because in 2018 Romania is among the last three EU member states that have not yet implemented a national breast cancer screening program (Figure 2).
The consequence is the mortality rate caused by this disease in Romania which is 36%, higher than the European average (29%). In Romania, in 2017, 21 new cases of breast cancer are detected daily, and breast cancer is the main cause of female mortality in Romania (at every 3 hours a woman dies from this disease). However, the big health problems faced in the whole world demonstrate that the state of healthcare concern is still at the beginning.
Conclusion
The research results show that Romania does not currently have policies and strategies geared towards the real evolution of the healthcare system. Globalization in the health field can have a positive influence on the reduction of cancer mortality rates, thanks to facilitating the exchange of information and best practices used globally. More than 9000 women are diagnosed with breast cancer annually in Romania, 33% of them are diagnosed in stage IV, when options therapies are minimal. Breast cancer in Romania is the oncological disease with the most victims among women.
Sanitary education can help to create patterns that can describe the symptoms that can lead to breast cancer, understand the importance of prevention and apply good practice in this field. All these efforts would help the country's evolution and then remove health gaps and help the country align with global health policies. Another key issue is the medical staff, globalization being a factor that has led to a migration of the necessary human resources (which is a reason of the difficult access to healthcare), due to the unsatisfactory incomes in Romania, as well as the difficult working conditions. In poorly developed or in developing countries, even if the population had access to medical services, they would not afford the medication needed to treat serious diseases such as cancer. In order not to get into that impasse, prevention and education are very important. The research results show that Romania has an urgent need to implement a breast cancer screening program. Such screening programs can lead to very important results and can help in decreasing the funds needed to treat a breast cancer discovered in the advanced stage, precisely by early detection.
In conclusion, globalization can be used to the advantage of health systems with the help of policies and strategies created by the profile of each country because targeted populations are not similar in terms of attitudes and behaviors.
References
Handler A, Issel M and B. A.Turnock.(2001). Conceptual framework to measure performance of the public health system. A.J. of Public Health, 91(8): 1235–1239.
Eșanu, A. (2012). The concept of "global health" from the perspective of globalization, Chișinău: CEP Medicina. Current public health issues and management, (2):553-557.
Benatar, S., Gill S. and I. Backer. (2011). Global Health and the Global Economic Crisis, American Journal of Public Health, 101(4): 646– 653.
Sen, K., Bonita, R. (2011) Global health status: two steps forward, one step back, The Lancet, 365(9229): 579-582.
Nutbeam, D. (2000) Health literacy as a public health goal: a challenge for contemporary health education and communication strategies into the 21st century, Health Promotion International, 15(3).
(University of Peradeniya, 2018-11-09) Mayoshi, R. M. M.; Sri Ranjith, J. G.
Introduction
Creating self-employment opportunities is a way of improving the socio economic status of a country‘s rural economy. There are enough natural resources to create self-employment businesses in rural area such as lands and raw materials. Therefore, especially rural people in Sri Lanka pay attention towards self-employment. Many rural inhabitants in Sri Lanka are self-employed (International Labour Organization, 2014). In general, successful self-employment contributes to increased production, income and eventually, the eradication of rural poverty. In Sri Lankan, self-employment is a way of creating a larger space in the job market to promote work opportunities for the unemployed people. Gindling and Newhouse (2014) (cited in. De Mel et al, 2010) find most workers in developing countries to be self-employed. During the period 1991 to 2013 the percentage of self-employed in total employment increased yearly. In 1991, percentage of self-employed in total employment was 37.60 and 46.30 in 2013 (International Labour Organization, 2014).
In this research, we have attempted to identify the education, training and experience affecting the success of rural self-employed individuals and trends of self-employment. Nature of self-employment activities can be categorized into two parts; viz. non-farm and farm self-employment (Trends in non-farm self-employment activity for rural women, 2004). The majority of rural people in Sri Lanka engage in non-farm self-employment activities such as sweets production; producing and selling of spices; producing incense sticks, soap, wicks, handicraft productions, and bakery foods; services of beauty and hair cutting saloons; fashion designing, dress making and tailoring etc. Examples of farm self-employment are cultivation of mushrooms, flowers, vegetables and fruits, and animal production that are related to agriculture.
The literature provides information as to what factors affect the success of self-employed individuals. According to Robinson and Sexton (1994) self- employment success was measured by monthly income and education, training, experience, developed technology, age of self-employer and gender. The results indicate that education, training, and experience mainly affect the success of self-employment among rural inhabitants. Timothy (1995) finds that the self-employed are highly educated individuals often possessing financial resources. In 2009 Macieire analysed the impact of self- employment experience on income. The results indicate that experience and earnings from self-employment have a positive relationship and this quality of self-employment tends to be crucial for the success of a business.
Objective
The main objective of this study is to analyse the effects of training, experience and education of self-employed individuals on the success of having rural self-employment in Sri Lanka. Secondary objectives include, identifying the nature of self-employment activities and the major problems which are faced in the self-employment in rural inhabitants.
Methodology
A sample of 30 self-employed people living in the Ambalantota Divisional Secretariat in Hambantota was selected using a simple random sampling method. Questionnaire interviews were used to collect primary data. The study uses descriptive analysis and the Multiple Regression Model and uses the success of self-employment as the dependent variable (Y): self-employment success was measured by monthly income. The multiple linear regression model is specified as follows.
Yᵢ = β₀ + β₁Xᵢ + β₂X₂ᵢ + β₃X₃ᵢ + β₄X₄ᵢ + β₅X₅ᵢ + β₆D₁ᵢ + β₇D₂ᵢ + β₈D₃ᵢ + uᵢ
X₁- Monthly savings from self-employment (Rs.)
X₂- Numbers of family workers engaged in the business
X₃- Experience (numbers of years)
X₄- Age of self-employed
X₅- Education (numbers of years).
There are three qualitative variables that have been included in the multiple regression model as dummy variables. D₁ is usage of machine, use = 1, otherwise 0, D₂ is vocational training of the self-employed, yes = 1, no = 0. D₃ is Gender of the self-employed, male = 1, otherwise = 0.
Results and Discussion
The results of the multiple regression model show that R² is 0.97. The estimation results show the overall regression model to be significant at the 5% significance level and that the overall goodness of fit is high. It indicates that the independent variables used explain about 97% of the success of self- employment. Moreover, the results indicate that there are a number of key significant factors such as savings, number of family workers engaged in the business, education, experience, training, usage of machine and gender affecting the success of self-employment; which are statistically significant at 5% and 10% confidence levels. Technology tends to be significant at the 10% confidence level. Age of self-employed is not significant at 5% and 10% confidence levels.
According to the analysis, 27% of the sample is engaged in farm self- employment activities and 73% is engaged in non-farm self-employment activities. The results also indicate demographic factors such as age, gender and family background, human capital and experience and economic factors affect the likelihood of being self-employed in the country‘s rural economy. As per the results, 53% of the sample is female self-employed and 47% is male. The highest proportion of self-employed is found between the ages of 24-30. This research has discovered three major problems in the self-employment of rural inhabitants, which are, difficulties of registering their business, difficulties of getting loans from government and private sector, and insufficient infrastructure in the rural area. According to the sample data, 53% of the sample is not registered business and 47% is registered business. Using the five point Likert-scale, difficulties of getting loan from government and private sector is 80% of the sample and 53% of the sample indicates that infrastructure is not sufficient in rural area.
Conclusion
The results indicate that education, training and experience tend to be crucial for the success of self-employment among rural inhabitants. Savings from self-employment, number of family workers engaged in the business, education, experience, training and being a female self-employed are the main factors affecting high income earnings and that tend to make rural self- employment successful. This research has also discussed three major problems in rural self-employment; viz. difficulties in registering their business, difficulties of getting loans from government and private sector, and insufficient infrastructure in rural area. Therefore, the government and private sector should take necessary actions to supply sufficient infrastructure facilities like transport, communication, credit facilities and marketing facilities. Marketing facilities help to find suitable markets for their produce without any losses. Also the rural self-employed should be encouraged to produce more using their resources and should take action to distribute their production around the country. Further studies are needed to assess psychological and social factors that affect the success of rural self- employment.
References
Bates, T. (1995).Self-employment Entry Across Industry. Journal of Business Venturing. 10(4): 481-498.
Gindling, T.H. and N, David.(2014). Self-employment in the developing World‘. World Development. 56: 313-331.
Macieira, M.H.C. (2009). The Determinants of Self-employment.Dissertation to Obtain the Degree of Master in Industrial Engineering and Management, University of Lisboa, Portugal.
Robinson, P.B. and Sexton, E.A. (1994).The Effect of Education and Experience on Self-employment Success. Journal of Business Venturing. 9(2): 141-156.
